Geely is going to ＂put satellites＂ this year？
(This article was published in the 5th issue of China Economic Weekly in 2020)
After Geely and Volvo announced the merger and reorganization in February, Geely has recently made another major move.
On March 3, at the Taizhou branch of Zhejiang Province’s major project to expand effective investment, the Geely Satellite Intelligent AIT Center built by Geely Technology Group officially settled in Taizhou, Zhejiang.
After Tesla, Geely became the second company in the world to "build cars + make stars".
This year, two low-orbit satellites will be launched
According to the plan, Geely Satellite Intelligent AIT Center will build facilities such as a satellite research and development center, a component intelligent manufacturing center, a measurement and control center, and a cloud computing big data platform.
As a car manufacturer, Geely suddenly announced the development and launch of satellites. Was it a whim?
"China Economic Weekly" reporter learned that as early as 2018, Geely began to plan for the "integrated travel ecology of heaven and earth", and strategically invested in Zhejiang Time and Space Daoyu Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Time and Space Daoyu") that year.
Tianyancha data shows that Spacetime Daoyu was founded in 2018, and Sun Company of Geely Technology Co., Ltd. holds 70% of its shares. Although the company seems to be a low-level company, Li Shufu personally serves as the chairperson of the company. Some media comments said that this may show that Li Shufu attaches great importance to the business.
It is reported that Spacetime will launch two low-orbit satellites in 2020 to fully launch the commercial verification of the world’s first low-orbit navigation augmentation satellite system. At the same time, it plans to launch the world’s first commercial low-orbit navigation augmentation system verification in 2020.
Geely said that the comprehensive layout of the commercial satellite field will consolidate the underlying structure for the integration of heaven and earth, and is a booster for Geely’s technological transformation.
However, the investment in building satellites is also an issue that Geely needs to consider.
Tianfeng Securities expects that our country or the birth of one or two world-class satellite Internet companies, against the United States SpaceX (Starlink) construction plan, or 8 years into orbit 11,000; 2028 is expected to our country satellite Internet total revenue or up to 58.05 billion US dollars (about 399.384 billion yuan).
"Due to the long satellite construction cycle and large investment, in this process, whether the acquired technology can be used by me and finally converted into its own core competitiveness technology, there are many uncertain factors, which will be a challenge to the cash flow and all aspects of the enterprise. Enterprises still need to do what they can," Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly.
Is a car + satellite a must for car companies?
In the unmanned driving scene, absolutely accurate positioning and low latency are required to ensure driving safety, so the high-precision map is required to reach the 0.5 cm level. Behind this is the full-link technology of massive data collection, data analytics and data applications. Some media published that without the support of low-orbit satellite integrated services, future unmanned driving will become nonsense.
Geely said that the planned low-orbit satellite can provide high-precision positioning services for high-level intelligent driving, and stressed that all core technologies of the space, ground, and application segments of this commercial system are fully autonomous and controllable.
This means that in the key technology field of autonomous driving, Geely Automobile has adopted autonomous solutions.
Pan Helin told China Economic Weekly that the car + satellite is a direction for 5G technology to be implemented. The integration of low-orbit satellites has now become an important area of competition for large enterprises, and powerful domestic and international car companies may actively follow suit. "Geely Group itself has travel needs, so’car + star ‘is necessary for its own strategic significance."
According to PwC’s forecast, by 2030, 60% of autonomous cars in the Chinese market will achieve driverless shared travel mode; the market value of shared travel in the United States, Europe and China will reach 1.50 trillion US dollars (about RMB 10.0368 trillion), with an average annual compound growth rate (2017-2030) of about 24%.
Geely said that the comprehensive layout of the commercial satellite field will also empower Geely Holding’s shared travel and low-altitude travel fields, and open to ecological partners. In the future, Geely will also be based on aerospace technology, and deeply integrate with intelligent manufacturing, future travel, big data and other industries to establish an open and win-win cooperation ecosystem.
Pan Helin believes that from the perspective of encouraging private enterprises to innovate, macro policies and other aspects can actively support similar enterprises to build satellites. However, whether car companies should invest in "star building" still needs to be considered. "In the area of autonomous driving and intelligent travel, the state can consider introducing a third party to provide basic and public services, such as the iron tower company. In this regard, we hope to strengthen the top-level design and avoid duplication of construction."
Can Li Shufu become China’s Musk?
Companies with a strong sense of crisis are trying to seize resources in this space race. In low orbit 200 to 2000 kilometers away from the earth, giants such as OneWeb, SpaceX, Google, Facebook, and Boeing have launched a space equipment race. According to statistics, the total number of low-orbit broadband constellation satellites that have been launched and proposed to be launched abroad has exceeded 10,000.
After Geely began to enter the satellite field, it also burned the competition of automakers from land to space.
Geely told the China Economic Weekly reporter that in the past 10 years, Geely Holding Group’s total R & D investment has exceeded 100 billion yuan. In 2018, Geely Holding Group’s R & D investment exceeded 21 billion yuan, accounting for 6.4% of total sales revenue. "From ground travel to low-altitude travel, from the development of vehicle to everything systems, on-board chips to the layout of low-orbit satellites. Geely actively deploys the future smart three-dimensional travel ecology. The’integrated three-dimensional travel ecology of heaven and earth ‘will cover all future travel scenarios and promote Geely’s transformation from a car manufacturer to a travel service provider."
It is understood that for the future of large-scale travel, Geely will also participate in the construction of the country’s first smart highway that supports intelligent driving and unmanned management – Hangshaoyong Smart Expressway. In addition, air travel for the next generation of transportation is also being planned.
Li Shufu once said: "Global development has entered an unprecedented technological height, speed of innovation and intensity of change in human society. The global automotive industry is facing huge innovation opportunities. Geely Holdings takes the initiative to embrace change, leads development with innovation, creates new advantages in online and offline integration, and joins forces with global partners to occupy the commanding heights of technology through collaboration and sharing, promote changes in the field of travel, and continue to create value for users."
It is worth noting that from building cars, satellites, to smart travel, Li Shufu’s future development plans for Geely are somewhat "coincidental" with the ideas of Tesla founder Musk. Whether Li Shufu can become China’s version of Musk has also become a hot topic in the community.
Pan Helin said that from the perspective of strategic layout, Li Shufu’s courage is still relatively large. The acquisition of Volvo in the past and the current layout are relatively advanced. However, whether he can become China’s Musk can only be proven by time.
In January 2020, with the successful launch of the third batch of satellites of the "Starlink Project", Tesla’s market value soared, becoming the second most valuable car company in the world after Toyota. Will Geely’s valuation rise sharply like Tesla’s?
Pan Helin analysis, from the perspective of market valuation, Tesla’s share price fluctuations have given the capital markets comparability, which may bring positive benefits to Geely in the short term, but in the long run, it takes a process from concept to implementation and true commercialization. Whether the valuation of a company can rise depends on the level of technology that the company finally masters.